Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is facing a tough market environment. Recent on-chain data reveals that nearly 74% of Ethereum’s supply is currently held at a loss, signaling increased sell-side pressure and market uncertainty. For crypto spectators, this situation presents both risks and opportunities, making it crucial to understand the forces shaping Ethereum’s price action.

The State of Ethereum’s Market: A Deep Dive into the Data

Ethereum’s price struggles have been exacerbated by a bearish market structure. Data from IntoTheBlock highlights that approximately 73.97% of ETH, or about 106.75 million tokens, are underwater. This means that the majority of Ethereum holders are sitting on unrealized losses, with only 24.07% of the supply in profit. Such a lopsided market dynamic often leads to increased selling pressure, as discouraged investors attempt to cut their losses and exit their positions.

Key Resistance and Support Levels: Can Ethereum Hold the Line?

One of the primary reasons Ethereum has been unable to stage a strong recovery is the significant resistance it faces at key price levels. Analysis of on-chain data shows that nearly 45% of Ethereum’s total supply—approximately 66.29 million ETH—was acquired within the $2,194–$2,571 range. With an average cost basis of $2,381.85 across roughly 12.28 million wallets, this zone has proven to be a strong barrier preventing further price appreciation.

Conversely, Ethereum’s support levels appear weak. Only 2.83 million ETH (around 1.96% of the total supply) is considered “at the money,” meaning it was purchased at the current market price range of $1,786–$1,791. This relatively small support base suggests that if Ethereum’s price were to dip further, there may not be enough buying interest to stabilize it.

Ethereum’s Price Struggles: Resistance Holding Strong

Ethereum has tested the $2,200–$2,580 resistance range multiple times, yet each attempt to break through has been met with strong selling pressure. Many analysts believe that this zone represents a psychological barrier, preventing Ethereum from achieving a sustained upward trend.

Without a significant increase in buying volume, Ethereum’s price could continue to drift sideways or even trend downward. Market sentiment remains fragile, with many traders and investors opting to stay on the sidelines rather than aggressively accumulate at current levels.

Large-Scale Withdrawals and Their Impact on Market Sentiment

Further complicating the situation, exchange netflow data from CryptoQuant indicates that large-scale Ethereum withdrawals have been a recurring trend in recent months. More than 300,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in February and March 2025 alone. Additionally, two significant spikes in withdrawals—400,000 ETH in mid-February and 409,000 ETH in early March—coincided with notable price declines.

While large-scale withdrawals often signal long-term holding intentions, they can also suggest that investors are moving their funds off exchanges to avoid selling at a loss. This trend reduces overall liquidity, making price recoveries more difficult in the absence of strong buying pressure.

Investor Sentiment: A Market Dominated by Realized Losses

Ethereum’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) chart paints a bleak picture for short-term investors. The NRPL has remained negative since early January, reflecting a sustained period of realized losses. On February 3, realized losses amounted to $922.48 million, followed by another sharp loss of $788.36 million on March 7.

The fact that Ethereum’s GIOM (Gains in Out-of-Money) chart shows most holders are underwater further underscores the market’s challenges. With a significant portion of ETH acquired at higher levels, resistance continues to build, making a breakout increasingly difficult without a surge in buying interest.

What This Means for Crypto Spectators and Traders

For crypto spectators looking to capitalize on market trends, Ethereum’s current price action offers several key takeaways:

1. Resistance is proving strong: Until Ethereum can break above the $2,200–$2,580 range with strong volume, it is likely to remain range-bound or even decline further.


2. Sell-side pressure dominates: The fact that nearly 74% of the supply is underwater suggests continued sell-offs, particularly if Ethereum experiences another wave of volatility.


3. Weak support could trigger deeper corrections: With limited support below current prices, Ethereum remains vulnerable to further downside unless a strong demand zone forms.


4. Withdrawals indicate investor caution: The trend of large-scale withdrawals suggests that investors are hesitant to engage in aggressive accumulation, limiting the potential for a swift recovery.



Conclusion: Uncertain Times Ahead for Ethereum

Despite its strong fundamentals and network growth, Ethereum is facing a challenging market environment. With the majority of holders in the red, significant resistance at key price levels, and limited buyer interest, Ethereum’s near-term price action remains uncertain.

For crypto spectators, this situation presents a mix of caution and opportunity. While a breakout remains possible, it will require a major influx of buying volume to overcome existing barriers. Until that happens, Ethereum is likely to remain under pressure, making careful analysis and risk management essential for those looking to navigate the market effectively.